Post-Jilaal assessment indicates that an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in parts of Somalia

SUMMARY STATEMENT

Results from the post-Jilaal assessment and recent SMART surveys indicate that Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity persist in many areas of Somalia. In addition, a severe AWD/cholera outbreak is ongoing. While large-scale humanitarian assistance has reduced household food consumption gaps and contributed to reduced staple food prices, there remains an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) due to the combination of severe food consumption gaps, high acute malnutrition, high disease burden, and reliance on humanitarian assistance. It is now estimated that approximately 2,510,000 people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 700,000 will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between now and June. Furthermore, given the high likelihood that Gu production will be well below average, food security outcomes are only expected to improve modestly in July/August. Continued large-scale humanitarian assistance, including both food assistance and efforts to prevent and treat AWD/cholera, are needed throughout 2017.

KEY UPDATES

• January to March Jilaal season. The January to March Jilaal season was drier and hotter than normal and pasture and water resources were extremely limited. April field reports indicated that households in northern and central areas have lost 40-60 percent of their livestock since the Deyr 2016/17 assessment and households in southern regions lost 20-40 percent of their herds, due to distress selling and livestock deaths. Off-season Deyr cereal production was only 357 MT, 93 percent below average, attributed to limited water availability for cultivation and farmers who sold their crops at the vegetative stage for fodder, when the price and demand were high.

• Gu seasonal progress. April to June Gu rainfall started two weeks later than normal and has been below average in all areas, except in the northeast where rainfall totals have been near average. April rainfall deficits led to crop wilting in rainfed areas and many farmers replanted. Late April/early May rainfall has led to seed germination, but reduced yields are still expected due to early season losses and forecast erratic rainfall. Pasture and water resources have begun to improve with recent rains and it is expected livestock body conditions and value will slowly increase through June.